ESPN baseball analyst Buster Olney has predicted that the Pittsburgh Pirates will win the 2015 World Series.
Many feel that the current Pittsburgh roster is better than those of the Pirate teams that won the top Wild Card spot in 2013 and 2014.
And everybody, including me, believes that the Pirates will again be strong contenders for the post-season.
But I’m not willing to ignore the many question marks on this team. Here they are, in no He oparticular order:
* Pedro Alvarez: In his last 725 plate appearances, dating back to the 2013 All-Star break, Alvarez has hit .224/.299/.411 — .710 OPS. He offers little more than power and even that was lacking in 2014. His HR total dropped from 36 in 2013 to 18 last season. Players with Alvarez’s skill-set tend not to age well. Baseball-reference.com lists Butch Hobson as the hitter most comparable to Alvarez. At Alvarez’s current age of 28, Hobson hit .228/.281/.349 — .630 OPS, with 11 HR in 352 PA. At 29, he had a .657 OPS and his career was essentially over.
* Josh Harrison: He was spectacular last year, hitting for an .837 OPS. But that came with a .353 BABIP, which was 78 points higher than his previous career BABIP. His expected BABIP last year (based on line drives, flyballs, groundballs, and infield hits) was .320 and would have dropped his OPS to .775. His career OPS, prior to 2014, was .649. Regression is very likely.
* Corey Hart: He missed all of 2013 after having surgery on both knees and, in 2014, he hit for a career threatening batting line of .203/.271/.319 — .590 OPS. But those are just the most well-known concerns about Hart.
Even in his heyday as a Brewer, Hart’s numbers were greatly aided by playing his home games at Miller Park. In Hart’s career as a Brewer, he had an .891 OPS at home. But when he went on the road – as a Brewer – that number dropped to .762. In 2012, Hart’s last season with the Brewers, he hit for an .987 OPS at home, with 22 HR in 302 PA. On the road, he had a .703 OPS with 8 HR in 320 PA. Even if Corey Hart is healthy, PNC ain’t Miller Park.
* Starling Marte: “What?! Are you kidding me? Starling Marte is more of an MVP candidate than a question mark?!”
In the second half of 2014, Marte hit for a .975 OPS in 206 plate appearance. In the 504 plate appearances he took immediately prior to that – dating back to the 2013 All-Star break – Marte hit .256/.331/.384 — .716 OPS. And those struggles were not a matter of bad luck. He struck out in 28.4% of those 504 PA and his BABIP was a very high .358 during that time.
I understand that Marte has great potential and he demonstrated what he is capable of doing in the 206 PA he took in the second half of last season. But the fact that he hit for a .733 OPS in the second half of 2013 and a .708 OPS in the first half of 2014 says that Starling Marte is no guarantee.
* Gregory Polanco: Polanco has been given the starting RF job – without having to win it – on the strength of nothing more than two excellent months at AAA last season. After being promoted to Pittsburgh, he posted a .650 OPS and looked lost in the outfield. In 2013, he hit for a .762 OPS at Double-A. (The Next Dave Parker or . . .?)
Steamer projects that Polanco will hit for a .689 OPS. Zips has him at .714 and Baseball Prospectus pegs him for a .700 OPS. He may not yet be ready for the major leagues. And the Pirates could end up greatly regretting their trade of Travis Snider (.776 OPS last year) to the Orioles for two fringe prospects, who have yet to play above Single-A.
* Catcher: Francisco Cervelli doesn’t have to hit like Russell Martin did last season. Russell Martin is not going to hit like Russell Martin did last season. But Cervelli does have to stay healthy and give the Pirates something close to his .729 career OPS. And staying healthy has been a problem for Cervelli.
If Cervelli goes down, the Pirates are left with a choice between Chris Stewart‘s very good defense and .596 career OPS; or Tony Sanchez‘s moderate hitting potential (career .789 OPS at AAA) and potentially disastrous defense.
* A.J. Burnett: He should be much better than the 4.59 ERA he posted with the Phillies last year. But he is now 38 years old and even his 3.95 xFIP was 14 points worse than the MLB average for starters last season. He could be very good. He could be very bad. And that’s why he’s a question mark.
* Charlie Morton: He is recovering from hip surgery. The last time he did that, he came back to soon and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. If he is healthy, he is the quintessential #3 starter. But is he healthy?
* Vance Worley: As another astounding Pirate reclamation project, Worley had a 2.85 ERA and 3.54 xFIP last year. But let’s not forget what made him a reclamation project: In 2013, he posted a .721 ERA and 4.76 xFIP.
Question Mark: Which Worley will be on the mound for the Bucs this year?
Antonio Bastardo has a terrific strikeout rate and is equally as good against right-handed hitters as he is against lefties. But he struggles with control (4.78 BB/9 last season) and he had a 3.94 ERA and 3.81 xFIP last year.
Jared Hughes pitched effectively last year, but he is not a set-up man. His K rate is low and he depends heavily on fielding and the random placement of the groundballs he induces. His BABIP last year was .246, helping him to an extraordinary 1.96 ERA. In 2013, however, his BABIP was .333 and his ERA exploded to 4.78.
Jon Holdzkom looked great last year; in his first 9 innings in major league baseball, after starting the season in the Independent Leagues. That is the definition of a question mark.
Radhames Liz: He is 31 years old, hasn’t pitched in the major leagues since 2009, and owns a career 5.92 xFIP.
Arquimedes Caminero: He is 27 years old and spent 7 years in the Florida Marlins minor league system, while pitching just 19.2 MLB innings with an xFIP of 4.41.
Regardless of the question marks, the Pirates do look like contenders; but let’s not pretend that there’s no chance of the wheels coming off.