Edinson Volquez 2014 Projection

I had not done a projection for starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, but when I heard that the Pirates signed him this afternoon, I got busy. Here’s what I came up with:

K/9ip:     8.36

BB/9ip:  4.92

HR/9ip: 0.85

xFIP/ERA: 4.16

WAR:    1.9

If Volquez hits those numbers, he will be worth more than the $5 million that the Pirates will pay him.  A 4.16 xFIP would make him a solid #4 starter. (Jeff Locke‘s 2013 xFIP was 4.19.)

Volquez’s strikeout rate and groundball percentages are a good fit for what the Pirates did last year with their pitching staff. The team led all of major league baseball in groundball percentage – by a wide margin – which played into the Pirates extreme use of defensive shifts.

Volquez’s GB rates over the past three seasons have been 52.4%, 50.6%, and 47.6%. (44.5% was the league average in 2013.)

His two-seam fastball has averaged 92.4 m.p.h.

149 thoughts on “Edinson Volquez 2014 Projection

  1. Pingback: Bob Smizik: Volquez worth the gamble | Pittsburgh News

  2. Not a big fan of this signing yet but will wait to see what the roster looks like in the spring. Maybe if this was a side move after a move for first base or a more qualified starter I would feel better. His walks and control are very a big concern.

    • Volquez’s walks are definitely a concern, but so were Liriano’s at this time last year. No, volquez is not, and will not be, Liriano. but the Pirates only need him to be a #5 starter.

      When I consider that Jason Vargas signed for 4 years and $32 million, I see one year and $5 million for Volquez as reasonable. Even though his WAR-based value was only $2 million.

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