The Curse of First-Round Expectations

I was recently dumbfounded, flummoxed, flabbergasted, and all other redundant terms for something like “incredulous” when I read a New York Mets Blog’s suggestion that the team should simply cut Ike Davis.

This is a player who is one season removed from hitting 32 home runs, has hit a HR once every 25 career plate appearances, will be 27 this season, and has a lifetime .768 OPS. That is not somebody a team should throw away because he had one bad year.

The Mets are reportedly trying to trade Davis and the Pirates are a possible partner – along with Milwaukee and Baltimore. There have also been reports that the Mets are seeking a young starting pitcher in return – somebody on the order of the Brewers Tyler Thornburg or Pirate farmhand Nick Kingham. Mets management obviously still believes Davis has significant value. But their fans are fully exasperated with him.

I believe the Mets fans’ are mistaken. And that their reason for giving up on Davis is almost completely the result of the high (and probably unrealistic) expectations that are placed upon first-round draft picks.

Davis was taken by the Mets with the 18th pick of the first round of the 2008 draft – the same year that Pedro Alvarez was selected by the Pirates. And I think many Pirate fans made the same mistake as Mets fans did with Davis. They expected Alvarez to burst upon the major leagues and hit .300/.400/.500 within two years of being drafted. And when he struggled, fans were quick to utter the word, “bust.”

Ike Davis and Pedro Alvarez will probably never post a season-long .900 OPS. But they have both been very productive major league hitters and should continue to be so for the next few seasons.

Davis career .768 OPS was the National League average for 1B in 2013. Alvarez’s career .749 OPS is 21 points above average for NL 3B.

Yes, one should hope for great things from a player drafted in the first-round – especially one taken with the second overall pick, as was Alvarez. But a major league average – or slightly above average – career is not a bad result when a team is drafting a 21-year-old who has never played at even the lowest levels of the minor leagues.

There aren’t many major league average baseball players in this world. Teams cannot afford to throw one away after one bad season. But  . . .

If the Mets mistakenly believe that they can . . . the Pirates should immediately offer Davis a 2-year, $10 million contract.

**** LINKS:

Post on Ike Davis age-27 comparables

2014 Projection for Ike Davis ( and other 1B) vs. Right-handed Pitchers

 

344 thoughts on “The Curse of First-Round Expectations

  1. Pingback: Cori Gorey

  2. Pingback: Wilbur Carrozza

  3. Pingback: Wm Brilla

  4. Pingback: Jimmy Caradonna

  5. Pingback: Esperanza Laible

  6. Pingback: Hay Day Cheats

  7. Pingback: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City cheats

  8. Pingback: Trackback

  9. Pingback: Trackback

  10. Pingback: Trackback

  11. Pingback: Trackback

  12. Pingback: Trackback

  13. Pingback: Trackback

  14. Pingback: Trackback

  15. Pingback: Trackback

  16. Pingback: Trackback

  17. Pingback: Trackback

  18. Pingback: Need an attorney?

  19. Pingback: Trackback

  20. Pingback: Trackback

  21. Pingback: here Scottsdale DUI lawyers

  22. Pingback: httP://www.yoUtube.com/watch?v=-ypGoBqbtg0

  23. Pingback: how to increase testosterone

  24. Pingback: cara alami memutihkan kulit

  25. Pingback: Quick Dry Shirts custom embroidered in the USA

  26. Pingback: Floor Cleaning Machines

  27. Pingback: paintless dent removal training

  28. Pingback: paintless dent removal training

  29. Pingback: paintless dent removal training

  30. Pingback: pdr-training

  31. Pingback: Lakeville Condo Price

  32. Pingback: muscle rev x

  33. Pingback: atrabilious apalachee agromyza

  34. Pingback: www.nodents.com

  35. Pingback: pdr tool sets

  36. Pingback: discount membership

  37. Pingback: website

  38. Pingback: Love Letters For Her

  39. Pingback: claim right here

  40. Pingback: commonwealth tower condominium

  41. Pingback: Love Letters For Him

  42. Pingback: по ссылке

  43. Pingback: รับปริญญา-จุฬา-2557.html

  44. Pingback: vapor cigarette

  45. Pingback: visit this site

  46. Pingback: Trackback

  47. Pingback: view all here

  48. Pingback: click over here

  49. Pingback: melt your mans heart review

  50. Pingback: garcinia cambogia extract with green coffee bean

  51. Pingback: kosiarka elektryczna

  52. Pingback: bridge loans

  53. Pingback: this is the only such party with covers dvd

  54. Pingback: e cigarettes usa

  55. Pingback: see this website

  56. Pingback: this site

  57. Pingback: ช่างภาพรับปริญญา

  58. Pingback: gnc store garcinia cambogia

  59. Pingback: Kids

  60. Pingback: pure garcinia cambogia and dr oz

  61. Pingback: garcinia cambogia where to buy gnc

  62. Pingback: url man

  63. Pingback: bloemfontein accommodation

  64. Pingback: pauly 888

  65. Pingback: mejores articulos

  66. Pingback: Soccer IQ

  67. Pingback: matsubaya ryokan

  68. Pingback: big idea mastermind reviews

  69. Pingback: free netflix account and password

  70. Pingback: vick strizheus

  71. Pingback: best web site design

  72. Pingback: best garcinia cambogia brand

  73. Pingback: รับปริญญา

  74. Pingback: fat burning

  75. Pingback: Retail Management System Ecommerce Integration

  76. Pingback: Brampton furnace repair services

  77. Pingback: jawatan kosong

  78. Pingback: no deposit casinos usa welcome

  79. Pingback: iphone screen protector

  80. Pingback: how to burn fat

  81. Pingback: black dating site

  82. Pingback: eiaculazioni precoce

  83. Pingback: eiaculazione precoce

  84. Pingback: nail bed fungus

  85. Pingback: this hyperlink

  86. Pingback: Riconquistare un ex

  87. Pingback: wypozycjonowanie

  88. Pingback: www.eiaculazione-precoce.blogspot.it

  89. Pingback: automatic directory submission

  90. Pingback: รับสั่งทำขนมกลีบลำดวน

  91. Pingback: free electronic cigarette trial

  92. Pingback: Unlock iPhone Norway

  93. Pingback: best web hosting reviews

  94. Pingback: visit this site

  95. Pingback: Great Music

  96. Pingback: rowery

  97. Pingback: cheapoair promo codes

  98. Pingback: dr oz diet pills

  99. Pingback: goodmorninggaydar.us

  100. Pingback: finance fundation

  101. Pingback: cheapoair promo codes

  102. Pingback: food safety

  103. Pingback: samsung universe

  104. Pingback: cheapoair promo codes

  105. Pingback: cheapoair coupon

  106. Pingback: electric cigarette

  107. Pingback: plural design

  108. Pingback: cheapoair coupon

  109. Pingback: google maps marketing

  110. Pingback: cheapoair promo codes

  111. Pingback: Trackback

  112. Pingback: hyundai hybryd

  113. Pingback: web hosting trial

  114. Pingback: garcinia cambogia

  115. Pingback: Lunatik Promo Code

  116. Pingback: pure garcinia cambogia dr oz

  117. Pingback: diet pills online

  118. Pingback: steve organic farmer

  119. Pingback: high quality seo agency

  120. Pingback: Find a San Jose electrician

  121. Pingback: rs232 to fiber converter

  122. Pingback: ac repair katy tx

  123. Pingback: Plaques Dallas TX

  124. Pingback: visit houstonroofrepair.com

  125. Pingback: cheapoair promo codes

  126. Pingback: chad the bail guy

  127. Pingback: cheapoair coupon codes

  128. Pingback: gov free credit report

  129. Pingback: orange county internet marketing

  130. Pingback: promo code for cheapoair

  131. Pingback: Outdoor Digital Signs

  132. Pingback: cheapoair coupons

  133. Pingback: Minneapolis SEO Consultant

  134. Pingback: home security company in london

  135. Pingback: cheapoair discount codes

  136. Pingback: best marketer in san diego

  137. Pingback: hd wallpapers

  138. Pingback: Austin Local SEO Guide

  139. Pingback: best burglar alarms

  140. Pingback: meadville auto insurance

  141. Pingback: yahoo finance

  142. Pingback: bellaire roofing

  143. Pingback: melinda bliss

  144. Pingback: fire alarms installation london

  145. Pingback: jumpers simi valley

  146. Pingback: burglar alarm kits

  147. Pingback: published here

  148. Pingback: artificial turf malibu

  149. Pingback: brookline ma locksmith

  150. Pingback: byggprojekt gavle

  151. Pingback: pagerank backlinks

  152. Pingback: inflatable hire

  153. Pingback: Lunatik promo code

  154. Pingback: laptops

  155. Pingback: Lunatik coupon code

  156. Pingback: how to last longer in bed wikihow

  157. Pingback: Lunatik discount

  158. Pingback: Lunatik coupons

  159. Pingback: Lunatik promo code

  160. Pingback: depannage plomberie paris

  161. Pingback: Lunatik coupons

  162. Pingback: this page

  163. Pingback: Click To Investigate

  164. Pingback: irc4.me

  165. Pingback: Lunatik promo code

  166. Pingback: what is garcinia cambogia extract

  167. Pingback: lunatik coupon code

  168. Pingback: Lunatik promo codes

  169. Pingback: paintless dent repair training

  170. Pingback: Lunatik promo

  171. Pingback: best deer antler velvet

  172. Pingback: seo-superior.com

  173. Pingback: 2014 FIFA World Cup Match Highlights

  174. Pingback: dentrepairhelp.com

  175. Pingback: pixelitas.com

  176. Pingback: Lunatik promo

  177. Pingback: Lunatik discount code

  178. Pingback: Lunatik coupon code

  179. Pingback: Lunatik coupon

  180. Pingback: armodafinil vs modafinil

  181. Pingback: Provestra Side Effects

  182. Pingback: ios cheat

  183. Pingback: best cream for dark circles

  184. Pingback: premature ejaculation

  185. Pingback: remodeling contractors woodstock ga

  186. Pingback: property management

  187. Pingback: Harga Timbangan Digital

  188. Pingback: radar installation wilmington

  189. Pingback: basement remodeling atlanta ga

  190. Pingback: articulo

  191. Pingback: oceanside fencing repair

  192. Pingback: premature ejaculation pills dapoxetine

  193. Pingback: top affiliate program

  194. Pingback: zdrowa dieta

  195. Pingback: in-home petsitter

  196. Pingback: Indoor Air Quality Testing Glendale

  197. Pingback: coco palms singapore

  198. Pingback: http://provestrareviewx.blogspot.com

  199. Pingback: Trackback

  200. Pingback: dog boarding in naples

  201. Pingback: Diet pills

  202. Pingback: Matthew Mainen

  203. Pingback: carpet muncher

  204. Pingback: Lunatik promo code

  205. Pingback: Work At Home Jobs

  206. Pingback: Pharmacy

  207. Pingback: cheapoair promo code

  208. Pingback: Trackback

  209. Pingback: Permaculture Activist

  210. Pingback: Trackback

  211. Pingback: cheapoair promo code

  212. Pingback: osrodek

  213. Pingback: renovation

  214. Pingback: Avnet Technology Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd

  215. Pingback: naples cat boarding

  216. Pingback: uicasiancomputerservices.com

  217. Pingback: pet sitter naples

  218. Pingback: brochure design devon

  219. Pingback: league of angels

  220. Pingback: we're the cubbies

  221. Pingback: Garden Bridges

  222. Pingback: mold removal toronto

  223. Pingback: antalyahomes

  224. Pingback: buy youtube likes

  225. Pingback: regenerative institute

  226. Pingback: bankruptcy attorney harrisburg pa

  227. Pingback: news

  228. Pingback: tips to cure premature ejaculation naturally

  229. Pingback: premature ejaculation ireland

  230. Pingback: Concurso seo

  231. Pingback: asic miners for litecoin

  232. Pingback: where can i buy garcinia cambogia

  233. Pingback: crema para el acne

  234. Pingback: premature ejaculation pills uk

  235. Pingback: see this here

  236. Pingback: android hack

  237. Pingback: rolety katowice

  238. Pingback: meble stylizowane

  239. Pingback: Ogloszenia Tarnobrzeg

  240. Pingback: porady prawne

  241. Pingback: bielizna erotyczna

  242. Pingback: cheapest viagra super force

  243. Pingback: ios hacks

  244. Pingback: (PMI Certification

  245. Pingback: cheap natural viagra

  246. Pingback: title loan

  247. Pingback: iherb coupon codes

  248. Pingback: cheapest generic viagra australia

  249. Pingback: dr oz and garcinia cambogia

  250. Pingback: iherb coupon

  251. Pingback: download game

  252. Pingback: garcinia cambogia extract pure where to buy

  253. Pingback: hca garcinia cambogia extract pure

  254. Pingback: how to make beats

  255. Pingback: iherb coupon

  256. Pingback: timbangan

  257. Pingback: Trackback

  258. Pingback: przedstawiciel marki blukey

  259. Pingback: okna pcv kielce

  260. Pingback: ทำ SEO

  261. Pingback: noclegi ustron

  262. Pingback: fotograf slubny bielsko

  263. Pingback: free virus removal

  264. Pingback: pharmacie andorre cialis

  265. Pingback: kamus b.inggris dan terjemahannya

  266. Pingback: funny commercials 2014

  267. Pingback: Endermologia Rzeszów

  268. Pingback: drzwi siedlce

  269. Pingback: skup samochodów Warszawa

  270. Pingback: iherb coupon

  271. Pingback: Tidung

  272. Pingback: iherb coupon code

  273. Pingback: funny painful fails

  274. Pingback: Blog

  275. Pingback: vladislav davidzon

  276. Pingback: top funny commercials

  277. Pingback: Diindolylmethane

  278. Pingback: biggest trucks in the world

  279. Pingback: kursy sep

  280. Pingback: fotografia slubna

  281. Pingback: projektowanie opakowan

  282. Pingback: krajowy spis firm

  283. Pingback: Hit-Meble.com.pl

  284. Pingback: tworzenie stron internetowych

  285. Pingback: uwodzenie kobiet w anglii

  286. Pingback: bisnis website

  287. Pingback: lustra szczecin

  288. Pingback: raporty gps

  289. Pingback: projektkolektyw.pl – Kraków

  290. Pingback: safety pool nets

  291. Pingback: serwetki

  292. Pingback: Debt

  293. Pingback: call center software

  294. Pingback: buy cialis

  295. Pingback: Fidelity testing

  296. Pingback: bóle glowy

  297. Pingback: cialis pamplemousse

  298. Pingback: handmade wall tiles

  299. Pingback: gaz obronny

  300. Pingback: Gerda kraków

  301. Pingback: niwelator laserowy

  302. Pingback: читать страшилки

  303. Pingback: รับทำ SEO

  304. Pingback: canvas on print

  305. Pingback: prix cialis 2 5mg

  306. Pingback: Tech

  307. Pingback: funny cat vines

  308. Pingback: prix cialis generique

  309. Pingback: Fundraising

  310. Pingback: online shopping in india for women

  311. Pingback: weight loss natural

  312. Pingback: cialis viagra

  313. Pingback: water ionizer

  314. Pingback: Start

  315. Pingback: lida

  316. Pingback: mycie okien wroclaw

  317. Pingback: escritorio de advocacia

  318. Pingback: Cheap Youtube Views

  319. Pingback: wczasypodhelem.pl/mieszkanie-do-wynajecia

  320. Pingback: SEO friendly website submission directory

  321. Pingback: Health

  322. Pingback: www.blucarpet.com

  323. Pingback: cialis internet

  324. Pingback: Finance

  325. Pingback: clean

  326. Pingback: Betting

  327. Pingback: skup samochodów kielce

  328. Pingback: obsluga prawna firm

  329. Pingback: i-lipo warszawa

  330. Pingback: Linux Installation Tips

  331. Pingback: ksiegowosc Olsztyn

  332. Pingback: kancelaria adwokacka Katowice

  333. Pingback: Tesco

  334. Pingback: Vasco Images

  335. Pingback: Liberty

  336. Pingback: sale weselne

  337. Pingback: najlepsze cwiczenia na miesnie brzucha

  338. Pingback: kosmetyki ekologiczne

  339. Pingback: Full indir

  340. Pingback: capture his heart reviews

  341. Pingback: rrw mulhouse licence

  342. Pingback: Trading

  343. Pingback: leeds builders

  344. Pingback: Lamborghini Aventador spalanie

Leave a Reply